“The 25 % tariff on India plus an unspecified penalty for energy and defence-related purchases from Russia is very bad news for Indian exports and thereby on the growth prospects of the Indian economy in the short run. Since trade negotiations with India are continuing, perhaps, the 25 % tariff may come down eventually. But certainly, there is a short-term hit to Indian exports and GDP growth. This short-term hit will reflect in the stock market, too, in the short-term.
From the investor perspective it is important to understand that the 25 % tariff will come down after the negotiations which start in mid-August. The 25% tariff imposed on India is far higher than the rates reached in trade deals with other countries. This is the typical Trumpian strategy to get better deals from India in other areas and finally settle at a tariff rate around 20 % or less.
Nifty is unlikely to go below the support level of 24500. Investors can buy the dip focusing on domestic consumption themes, particularly segments like leading private sector banking names, telecom, capital goods, cement, hotels and select autos which have done well in Q1.”
