Mumbai, July 29, 2020: Following the implementation of lockdown relaxations to revive the nation’s economy, several states recorded a surge in cases, which has further pushed India’s COVID-19 peak to September 03. Tracking the coronavirus pandemic in India for the past several months, Times Fact-India Outbreak Report, released its latest projections and highlights that India is set to hit a peak of 9.86 lakh active cases on September 03 according to most likely scenario and as per SEIR model the peak is projected at 10.15 lakh active cases on September 01. The report shows that following India’s peak, daily active case counts will decline by November 17, thereby establishing India’s recovery from COVID-19. This was earlier projected to end by mid-October.
The study shows that the easing of mobility restrictions has led to abandoning of safety protocols and significantly contributing to India’s peak being pushed. A continued failure to practise social distancing could very well skew India’s coronavirus curve further to the right and upwards, yielding a higher peak, and more distant end date, indicates the report.
Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: Key takeaways
- R0 or the basic reproduction number/rate, for India is slowly going down to 1.63 from 1.69 in last 20 days.
- All the major states except Kerala, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, and Haryana, still shows an upward trend with R0 close to 1.5.
- The Southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu continue to exhibit worrying COVID-19 trends.
- While Mumbai has put the worst behind, the new COVID-19 hotspots are Bengaluru and Pune.
- Chennai, Bengaluru, Thane and Pune still shows an upward trend with R0 close to 1.9 and R0 for all other major cities is still above 1.6 but showing a slow downward trend.
- Active cases of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have been growing rapidly with 10 and 12 days doubling time respectively.
- 31% of the active cases in India is from Maharashtra, however the average growth rate is 3% (7 days average).
- The Eastern States including West Bengal could emerge as trouble spots in the event if the trend continues.
Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: State and City Wise Projections
For details on the study findings and i
Most Likely Model SEIR Model
States & Cities Projected Peak Date Active Cases on peak date Projected End Date Projected Peak Date Active Cases on peak date Projected End Date
Maharashtra 14-Aug 191921 26-Oct 14-Aug 201016 23-Sep
Tamil Nadu 24-Aug 68708 17-Oct 24-Aug 76144 08-Oct
Delhi 27-Jun 28329 22-Sep 04-Aug 10010 22-Sep
Kerala 10-Aug 11972 15-Oct 02-Aug 12853 17-Sep
Telangana 15-Aug 15893 17-Oct 07-Aug 14060 17-Sep
Uttar Pradesh 21-Aug 41636 15-Oct 21-Aug 47235 22-Sep
Rajasthan 15-Aug 13021 10-Oct 09-Aug 13148 19-Sep
Andhra Pradesh 23-Aug 116255 28-Oct 19-Aug 123336 15-Oct
Madhya Pradesh 13-Aug 9859 30-Sep 07-Aug 9420 15-Sep
Karnataka 15-Aug 122774 03-Nov 11-Aug 125261 03-Nov
Gujarat 14-Aug 15520 12-Oct 14-Aug 15690 25-Sep
West Bengal 12-Aug 24520 07-Oct 05-Aug 23683 25-Sep
Haryana 17-Aug 7494 20-Sep 10-Aug 7471 09-Sep
Mumbai 23-Jun 29990 12-Oct 23-Jun 29990 24-Sep
Chennai 28-Jul 13955 28-Sep 05-Jul 24891 09-Sep
Ahmadabad 25-May 5681 12-Oct 25-May 5681 08-Sep
Bhopal 02-Sep 3289 30-Sep 05-Aug 2728 21-Sep
Indore 02-Sep 4041 26-Sep 10-Aug 2320 18-Sep
Jaipur 19-Aug 2982 08-Oct 20-Aug 2797 24-Sep
Surat 09-Aug 4568 25-Sep 09-Aug 5252 17-Sep
Pune 10-Aug 59746 28-Oct 10-Aug 69427 17-Sep
Bengaluru 15-Aug 46849 31-Oct 15-Aug 51489 27-Sep
Thane 19-Jul 38389 20-Oct 20-Aug 43206 02-Oct
For details on the study findings and insights, visit – https://www.timesnownews.com/times-facts
Methodology: Led by insights and efficacy, Times Fact India Outbreak Report a joint endeavour by Times Network and global data and digital consulting firm Protiviti, has achieved an accuracy rate of 96% for active cases for its previous projections. The report showcases several pertinent data points which includes India’s possible peak points, state & city wise projections and active cases over a period of time and report follows a sophisticated and vigorous mathematical modelling. Parsed by reputed data scientists and quantitative experts, Times Fact India Outbreak Report is based on two models, The Time Series Model, which involves factors in data across time periods in other countries affected by Covid-19 in addition to two polynomial regression models adapted to Indian data, and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model which is based on an estimation of a reproduction rate of the epidemic. Drawing critical information from central government data, state government bulletins, and daily updates provided by the Health Ministry, the report is a holistic COVID -19 projection for the nation.
Disclaimer: The COVID-19 Pandemic, is rapidly evolving, with new findings and insights being discovered daily. Stories based on the research document contains the observations and conclusions arrived at by Protiviti and Times Network basis the data and information examined and relied. Stories based on this document do not constitute or claim to serve as an advisory for any medical, safety or regulatory action and cannot be referred and relied in any disputes for challenging any other claims, reports, analysis of third parties on similar subject.
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